April 23, 2024
The global best-selling game “Dungeon and Fighter” (Dungeon & Fighter, DNF) The mobile version of “Dungeon Fighter: Origins” (referred to asDNFmobile game) will be officially launched on May 21st. Boosted by the news, Tencent (00700) stock price rose 6.2% yesterday, reaching a high of 322.6 yuan. It rebounded 16.6 yuan or 5.5% throughout the day and closed at 320.4 yuan, the largest single-day increase in the past nine months. Fury estimates,DNFThe annual revenue of mobile games (game payment) is expected to reach about 6 billion yuan. Considering that Tencent has several potential agent games, it is optimistic about its game revenue prospects and is expected to improve in the second quarter of this year.
Cumulative sales of PC version are 140.4 billion
Tencent’s turnover was close to 13.1 billion yuan yesterday, and trading was the most active this year. As of 1:45 this morning, Tencent’s American depositary shares (ADS) were quoted at HK$320.59, 0.06% higher than Hong Kong.DNFNexon, the parent company of mobile game developer Neople, performed well on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, soaring 5.7% yesterday.
The horizontal fighting online game “Dungeon Fighter” was developed by South Korean game manufacturer Neople. It was introduced to China through Tencent as an agent in 2008, and its popularity has not diminished over the years. Neople revealed in 2022 that “Dungeon and Fighter” has as many as 850 million players worldwide, with cumulative sales of US$18 billion (approximately HK$140.4 billion).
Based on the classic computer gameDNFThe mobile game was originally scheduled to be launched in the mainland in August 2020. However, before the launch, it was officially announced that the launch time would be postponed due to the need to upgrade the in-game anti-addiction system. It was not until February this year that “Dungeon Fighter: Origins” was issued an imported game version number, and advance testing began immediately. Now the release date has been officially set.
Jefferies expected to drive revenue improvement this quarter
DNFMobile games are one of the most talked about products in Tencent’s game reserves. Fury pointed out,DNFThe mobile game was launched on May 21, in line with expectations for its launch in the second quarter. It is estimated that the annual revenue of the mobile game will be approximately 6 billion yuan (RMB. The same below). The bank added that Tencent’s game revenue was weak in the first quarter of this year due to a high base, but the stock price has already reflected this.Apart fromDNFIn addition to mobile games, there are also several agent games that can further drive growth. Tencent’s game revenue is expected to improve in the second quarter.
Everbright Securities issued a report last week mentioning,DNFThanks to the influence of the IP (intellectual property rights) of “Dungeon & Fighter”, the mobile game is expected to become a stable and profitable product, and will contribute considerable revenue growth to Tencent after its launch. The audience of mobile game users is wider than that of computer games, and it is more convenient to promote through Tencent’s social media tools. The annual performance of mobile games after their launch may exceed the income level of computer games in China.
Analysis: Worrying about user inferiority of “Honor of Kings”
DNFAfter the mobile game was approved in February this year, JPMorgan Chase also estimated that the revenue of the mobile game next year could reach 6 billion to 7 billion yuan.HSBC Global Research is more optimistic, predictsDNFThe revenue of mobile games this year is 5.8 billion yuan, which will increase significantly to 11 billion yuan next year.
However, some brokerages are more cautious about whether “Dungeon Fighter: Origins” can become another flagship mobile game of Tencent. Zheng Yufei, a technology and Internet industry researcher at Guosen Securities (Hong Kong), believes that,DNFThe user base of mobile games is not as good as that of “Honor of Kings” and “Peace Elite”. At the same time, the track record shows that mobile games adapted from classic IP may not be successful. It is recommended to wait and see whether the popularity of the game can be sustained in the first few months after its launch and the number of users. Attrition situation, the outlook will be clearer by then.
Everbright Securities mentioned,DNFThe issuance of licenses for mobile games demonstrates the positive attitude of regulators. Tencent’s subsequent high-quality reserve games with strong monetization capabilities, such as “Honor of Kings: The World”, are expected to be successfully approved after the development is completed and the licenses are submitted.
In addition, Tencent Games issued a notice on game play restrictions before and after the Labor Day holiday this year. The total game time for minors within the specified 25 days is 9 hours.
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